Splits:
W Silva/Arona
Belfort/Couture
Loops:
Henderson =>W Silva => Jackson => Henderson
Griffin => Bonnar => Jardine => Griffin
Jackson => Liddell => Ortiz => Griffin => Rua => Jackson
Tier 1 |
3 fighters |
Tier 2 |
7 fighters |
Tier 3 |
12 fighters |
Tier 4 |
21 fighters |
If you remember my last entry, I had some issues with the amount of data available for the light heavyweights. Because of the acquisition of Pride by the UFC and some of Pride’s matchmaking (most notably Wanderlei Silva’s entry into the Open Weight Grand Prix), there was a skewed amount of data available. To counteract that, I went ahead and looked at the past 4 years, instead of the past 3. Something interesting comes up right away without even looking at the power rankings. Chuck Liddell is in the top tier, even though he is below 3 guys in lower tiers, including 2 guys in Tier 3. The reason for this is that Chuck has 7 wins against guys on the graph. Four of those wins involve Tito Ortiz and Randy Couture. If I were to count those wins at 3/4th of a regular win (giving him credit for three wins instead of the full four), he would still remain in the top tier, but would fall below Quinton Jackson in the power rankings.
In the initial rankings (accounting for only the past 3 years), Chuck ended up 10th. He benefits greatly by adding two wins over Vernon White and Tito Ortiz, and the Ortiz win is even more important as it establishes clear dominance over him (the initial graph had his Ortiz win beatlooped out).
That’s not the only surprise, here’s the power ranking:
Rank |
Name |
Beatwins |
Beatlosses |
Ambig. Losses |
Wins |
Prev.
Rank |
Score |
1 |
Mauricio Rua |
13 |
0 |
1 |
6 |
– |
156.4 |
2 |
Chuck Liddell |
16 |
3 |
1 |
7 |
– |
152.5 |
3 |
Quinton Jackson |
16 |
0 |
2 |
5 |
– |
144.4 |
4 |
Rashad Evans |
15 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
– |
140 |
5 |
Jason Lambert |
11 |
1 |
0 |
4 |
– |
131.7 |
6 |
Lyoto Machida |
11 |
1 |
0 |
3 |
– |
130 |
7 |
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira |
11 |
2 |
0 |
4 |
– |
124.6 |
8 |
Wanderlei Silva |
3 |
0 |
2 |
4 |
– |
120 |
9 |
Thiago Silva |
21 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
– |
120 |
10 |
Thierry Rameau Sokoudjou |
13 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
– |
120 |
I was hesitant to post this info before UFC 79, but I didn’t want to just leave it sitting. The reason is that Wanderlei Silva (who, subjectively, I still think is top 3 right now) has A LOT to gain by beating Chuck Liddell. I think that’s the general feeling going into this fight anyway. Chuck, in my opinion doesn’t have much to lose. It should be obvious to anyone that Randy Couture is the exception, not the rule. Randy’s a preparedness freak, in addition to having a really good style to be able to fight well into his 40s (I think someone like Dan Henderson or Matt Lindland has the chance to do something similar). Chuck doesn’t have that luxury. But a loss to a huge star like Wanderlei doesn’t really change the path of his career. I’ve continued to say since the loss to Rampage, that Chuck is going to be best used like Tito is currently being used. High-profile, big-money fights, and a gatekeeper for the up-and-comers.
In terms of the Fight Lines power rankings, a win over Chuck ties Wanderlei with Quinton. He instantly jumps up 8 ranking spots. A loss would bump him down to 16th. So there’s a swing of about 14 spots for Wandy on December 29th. That’s an absolutely HUGE fight. Real world, a loss to Chuck really hampers his career path. Dana has said that he would highly consider giving Silva a title shot if he gets by Chuck (but, fortunately, not vice versa). A loss would put him into a similar position as Mirko Cro Cop was in after his loss to Gabriel Gonzaga. I agree with people who say that this fight doesn’t have the luster that it would have had 1 year ago. However, I would argue that it’s just as important as it was then, and it might be more important for their individual careers at this point.
I’ve been one of the many that have criticized Dana White for proclaiming the winner of Bisping/Evans a “top 5 fighter in the light heavyweight division.” Apparently, Dana has someone doing a Fight Lines style graph for him. Before you discuss Evans, you first should talk about Jason Lambert. With all the talk of the myriad of upsets in the LHW division this year (Griffin/Rua, Jardine/Liddell, and Sokoudjou’s wins over Nogueira and Arona), Lambert’s win over Sobral is just as important as those fights, but has by and large been forgotten about. A loss to Sobral would have kept him out of the top 10, and subsequently pushed Babalu would have put him right on the cusp of the top 10. Instead Lambert sits at number 5 while Renato’s gonna have a hard time rising above the 17th spot outside of the UFC.
Evans and Lambert are in a very precarious position however. While they both have beaten solid competition, they have yet to face anyone considered elite (by the consensus, not the Fight Lines definition). I’d like to see Evans next fight against someone like the loser of Liddell/Silva or the winner of Machida/Sokoudjou. I’d feel a lot more confident about Evans’ spot with a win over someone at that level.
Where’s Dan Henderson/Keith Jardine/Forrest Griffin? Hendo suffers from his loss to Nogueira, who has direct losses to Sokoudjou and Rua. Henderson’s win over Wandy was nullified by his loss to Quinton. Outside of that, Dan has wins over Vitor Belfort, Yuki Kondo, and Kazuhiro Nakamura. Not exactly the top 3 in the division. Subjectively, Henderson’s a lot higher on my list, but his only real claim in the division is a win over Wanderlei.
I’ve always thought Jardine and Forrest (and guys like Matt Serra, etc.) are overranked after upset wins. Yeah, Jardine just beat Chuck Liddell, but he’s also the guy who lost to Stephan Bonnar and Houston Alexander. Yeah, Forrest just won a huge fight against Mauricio Rua, but he’s the guy who lost to Tito Ortiz and Keith Jardine. I really don’t agree with the LHW rankings over at Sherdog. Shogun was ranked number 1 prior to his loss to Griffin, and then somehow drops to 6th? Josh Gross has always defended the rankings by claiming they are based on what a fighter has done, not what he will do. I don’t think there’s anything wrong with that, and in fact, I think it’s a more appropriate way of doing it. But their current rankings make me believe that they’ve forgotten or disregarded the losses Jardine and Griffin have suffered. Because ranking two guys (Liddell and Rua) who ran roughshod over their divisions over the past 3-4 years below two solid, but mediocre fighters simply because they have wins over them is mindboggling to me. To paraphrase a famous football cliche, anybody can be anybody else on any given day. The only thing we can safely say about Jardine and Griffin right now, is that they were the better fighters on September 22nd.
I’m not as content with this ranking as I was with the Middleweights. Adding the fourth year was a huge improvement over the previous attempt, and I think I will probably do something along the lines of using the past four years for LHW+ and the last three for MW and below. I might still have to make some concessions for guys like Takanori Gomi, Mach Sakurai, Shinya Aoki, etc. when I do the light and welterweights. Anyway, adding some subjective opinion to the data, my personal top 10 would probably look something more like:
1. Quinton Jackson
2. Mauricio Rua
3. Wanderlei Silva
4. Chuck Liddell
5. Lyoto Machida
6. Rashad Evans
7. Thierry Rameau Sokoudjou
8. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
9. Dan Henderson
T. Thiago Silva/Forrest Griffin
Even those rankings look kind of weird to me.
I’ll probably work on the welterweights next and try to get that out before UFC 79. I should have a revamped LHW graph by the Wednesday after that card as well (I’d probably have it they day after, but I’ll have a friend in town and then NYE partying).